Pay tax now or pay tax later? The math is simpler than the industry makes it sound — growth cancels out, so it comes down to your tax rate today vs. your tax rate then.
Use 2026 federal marginal rates. Find yours with our tax-bracket visualizer.
Tax bill this year
$11,000
Roth balance at withdrawal
$150,918
Break-even retirement rate
22%
Converting wins above this rate.
After-tax wealth at withdrawal, by marginal rate in retirement.
• Five-year rule: each conversion's earnings can't be withdrawn tax-free until five years after the conversion year (and you're 59½).
• IRMAA: a big conversion can spike your income two years later into higher Medicare premiums.
• RMD relief: converted dollars never face required minimum distributions — valuable even when the rate math is close.
• The sweet spot: low-income years between retirement and RMD age (or Social Security) are prime conversion windows.
